The Beast in the Middle East

Is a lasting peace within grasp after all the hype and positivity mixed with some negative comments over recent weeks? It is an unanswerable question because like it or not, the complicating factors are so immense as to muddy the Jordan River for eternity.

The competing forces at play in that volatile area of the world are complex, and historically it’s a place of unending conflict. It would be the dream of many to see, or be part of, a lasting peace, but mammoth efforts of coercion, diplomacy, acquiescence and perhaps capitulation by some parties would be required to bring about some semblance of normality. The long-running arguments over land ownership and the emphasis on the biblical history of the region must be set aside in order to focus on the core issues: ensuring diverse races, and those with differing religious beliefs can live together in harmony.

The declaration for enduring peace and prosperity signed by the presidents of Turkey and Egypt as well as the Emir of Qatar was clearly pandering to Donald Trump who would be delighted with the document’s title: “The Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity”. And it is interesting to note there is no mention in the document of a “two-state solution”. At this stage, it appears Israel has no intention of backing any plan for a Palestinian state. Netanyahu and the majority of Israelis oppose a two-state solution, fearing a Palestinian state would be used, particularly if Hamas was still on the scene, for a launchpad for future attacks. And let’s not forget, Hamas is yet to agreed to disarm! Trump’s pressure on Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire without disarming Hamas looks ominous in light of the recent brutal execution, for all the world to see, of family members of a rival faction. Fanatical militants such as these, rarely bow to pressure and revel in public displays of their prowess in disposing of those who oppose them. We are reminded of the videotaped beheading by ISIS of Western hostages. It is not inconceivable that more of this will happen in the near future as the various factions – the power blocs – seek to exert their influence and appeal to members and other young radicalized militants. The extremist side of the Islamic ideology is still active and will continue to flourish so long as the belief exists that a singular faith is the one path to Paradise.

There is no doubt, many of the power blocs have been weakened: Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine, but the fact remains the hatred of Israel and desire to eliminate Israelis and destroy the country, remains as a goal. The delaying tactics Hamas is using in returning bodies of the hostages is appalling. This terrorist organization seems to have the upper hand, for whereas Israel appears to have returned all the Palestinian prisoners; hostage body returns are well past the deadline set. During earlier negotiations, Israel returned over 2,000 prisoners, and now, Hamas may have additional bargaining chips with the retention and sloth-like return, one-by-one of those hostage bodies so treasured by Israel. According to the Israeli Hostage and Missing family Forum, Hamas know exactly where every one of the deceased hostages is held.

Among the Palestinians released mid October, 160 had been receiving monthly payments of roughly 8,000 shekels (NZ$3,000) over many years from the Palestinian Authority. These men have been accused by the Israeli Foreign Ministry of receiving “pay to slay” money that incentivized terror attacks on Israel. On release, 150 of the prisoners were staying at a five-star hotel in Cairo.

The burning question is now: “Will Hamas and other militant groups disarm and allow a democratic regime to govern a Palestinian enclave, free from armed power struggles and violence against Israel?” And will Israel agree to such a solution, remain within agreed borders, and pacify the Arab world bent on having a Palestinian state as a condition of peace. The Saudis hold some sway in the peace negotiations; they insist on complete Hamas withdrawal from Palestine fearing certain sabotage of any other group seeking to restore order in the Strip.

Beneath the warscape of Gaza is a vast network of tunnels said to be more than 500 kilometers in length, nicknamed the Gaza metro. This alone poses a threat to Israel, the destruction of which would be a priority in any negotiations with confirmation the job had been completed fully and effectively.

Iran, a country of 92 million people, is in the midst of soaring inflation and water scarcity. One would think the last thing on its mind would be another scuffle or worse, with Israel. Nevertheless, the New York Times reports Iran is racing to build thousands of missiles and another round of conflict is probable. The idea is to have the ability to overwhelm Israeli defences with 2,000 missiles fired all at once. It is the religious zeal of this theocracy, a Shiite-dominated country with a fixation on the evil of Zionism and the destruction of Israel which keeps the kettle boiling. Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbolla and Yemen’s Houthis, receive arms and full support from Iran, all part of the country’s desire to exert control and influence in other Middle East countries.

Thoughts of a true peace in this area of the world seem as remote as ever. As Albert Einstein said: “Peace cannot be kept by force; it can only be achieved by understanding.”